To Lockdown or Not to Lockdown: That is the Question

Unchartered. Unparalleled. Unprecedented. These are just some of the words that we have heard from pundits and chatters alike to describe what the Covid-19 pandemic has done to economies and societies across the world. China as a country of origin for this global public health crisis has become the punching boy by many leaders and for many good reasons. Chief among these is the Chinese Communist Party's lack of transparency about the extent of the outbreak, how it is responding, and what it told the world about it during the early days of the outbreak in Wuhan. Taiwan, which Beijing considers as a province, was well aware of the extent of the outbreak and decided to take actions very early on to prevent the spread of the disease. Thanks to its previous experience with the 2003 SARS, its leaders know exactly how to deal with the problem.

Reports say that Taiwanese leaders also benefitted much from information that it got from its citizens who are doing business with mainland China. These information were crucial to Taiwanese leaders. These Taiwanese in the mainland scoped out the real situation from what is being spewed by Chinese Communist Party cadre to the media. The lack of transparency by Beijing and its threat of retaliation to countries who might impose travel bans or travel restrictions to and from China only made matters worse for countries powerless to go against China's wishes. Taiwan managed to control the spread of the pandemic without shutting down its economy through lockdowns. And China could not use its economic leverage to Taiwan because Taiwan's economy is quite big for its size. South Korea approached the problem differently. It went full blast with contract tracing, extensive PCR testing, and rigorous isolation of those who have contracted or possibly contracted the disease. The result was successful. Japan initially declared a state of emergency but stopped short of declaring a lockdown. Compared to Taiwan and South Korea, Japan's approach was less effective but compared with the rest of the world, it is a relatively huge success. Observers attribute the success to the famous discipline and politeness of the Japanese people in taking responsibility to wear facemasks and observing physical distancing, although the latter was hard for densely populated mega cities of the country.

Asian countries such as the Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Myanmar have employed different approaches. Of these countries, Philippines, Singapore and Indonesia have been the worst battered.

During the initial round of outbreak, Singapore showed relative success but suddenly the outbreak went high when expatriates brought the disease in high rise and densely populated condominiums of Singapore. The Philippines imposed an extended lockdowns through the main island of Luzon and then in some regions and provinces that saw spike of Covid-19 cases. But the lockdowns did not flatten the curve and the government while able to prepare for the expected rise in Covid-19 cases remain short of what it must have to deal with potentially nightmarish public health crisis. Unfortunately for the Philippine government it could no longer afford putting the country into extended lockdowns as the economy has taken a heavy beating. Economic managers and some cabinet officials want a revised plan to deal with the pandemic. Time will tell if the Philippines can flatten the curve or if it will join Indonesia, which is also seeing a steady spike in Covid-19 cases.

In the West, countries that were badly hit by the pandemic are Italy, the UK, Spain, the USA and Brazil. The economies of these countries have seen massive declines with millions being thrown into joblessness. After hitting millions of citizens contracting Covid-19, the USA gradually opened its economy. There are initial signs that the economy is rebounding with declines in unemployment rate showing signs of recovery. The crucial balancing acts that leaders must do is keeping the economy open while preventing the spread of the pandemic.

(My wife and I adjusting to the new normal)